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Pre-Fire Predictions 23 October 2020
A Swedish derby is on the menu today as NiP take on fnatic.
Valle | Oct 23, 2020 | Pre-Fire Predictions
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Astralis -vs- Vitality
Top Pick: device / ZywOo
Outsider Pick: dupreeh
A spot in the grand final will be up for grabs as Astralis take on Vitality in this upper-bracket matchup. Astralis have yet to lose a BO3 series against Vitality so far this year, winning five straight. Magisk and device have topped the scoreboard on two occasions each against Vitality. Another player who stands out is dupreeh, who has been the second-highest fragger on the server in four out of these matches. The fact that Vitality tend to go for either Vertigo or Dust2 further adds to his upside, as these are two of his best maps in the pool. He also leads his team on Nuke in the last three months with 0.75 kills/round, which has been Astralis' most common map choice against Vitality this year. I would expect most of the money to come in on device and ZywOo, so taking a stab on dupreeh isn't a bad play, as this could give you a nice return even in the place market.
With how dominant Astralis have been against Vitality, there is really only one player that I am considering on Vitality and that is ZywOo, who leads all players at the event so far with 0.86 kills/round. It is worth noting that ZywOo has never top-fragged in a loss against Astralis, so Vitality will likely have to win if you want to cash in on ZywOo. In fact, he hasn't even been among the Top 2 fraggers in any of their losses. For that reason, I actually think it is a better play to take a stab on any of the Astralis players, with the trio of device, Magisk and dupreeh being my favourites in this matchup.
fnatic -vs- NiP
Top Pick: KRIMZ
Outsider Pick: Plopski
fnatic are set to face off against NiP in this Swedish derby. This will be a do-or-die matchup, with both teams fighting elimination in the lower bracket. fnatic have had the edge in this matchup historically, winning three out of the four matches that they have played this year. However, it is worth noting that NiP had to play with their coach in the most recent match against fnatic. This was because nawwk was out on medical leave to prevent burnout, something which has been common due to the busy schedule that the players have to deal with. He is now back on the main roster and he leads the team with 0.80 kills/round so far at the event.
It is going to be very interesting to see how the map veto is going to play out in this match. fnatic have always banned Vertigo in this matchup in the past, and for good reason. When GeT_RiGhT and f0rest left the team, NiP quickly incorporated Vertigo into their map pool, and at one point it was one of their better maps in the pool. All of this has changed in just a few months. Since hampus took over the reins as the IGL for NiP, they have shied away from Vertigo, and it is now one of their worst maps in terms of overall win rate (22.2%), and they rarely pick it nowadays.
fnatic, on the other hand, have started taking a liking for this map and have been floating it even against elite Vertigo teams like G2 and Vitality. So far, this has proven to be very successful, and they haven't lost on it yet. For that reason, it would not be surprising for me to see them float it against NiP. In fact, they might even pick it considering how bad NiP have been on Vertigo with hampus. This makes KRIMZ an interesting pick in this series, as he leads all players on fnatic on Vertigo with 0.77 kills/round this year. This is especially true when you consider that NiP might pick Mirage, which is another signature map for KRIMZ. Other great options on fnatic are Brollan and JW, who have topped the scoreboard for fnatic in past matches against NiP.
On NiP, there is one player who stands out, and that is Plopski. He was at the top of the scoreboard in their only win against fnatic this year, and he is also their all-time top fragger with 0.74 kills/round on Vertigo. The likes of nawwk and REZ definitely should not be disregarded either, but my money is on Plopski.
Sprout -vs- OG
Top Pick: mantuu (OG)
Outsider Pick: dycha / faveN (Sprout)
OG are coming in as the favourite in this 7th place decider match against Sprout. The map veto could play an important factor in how the players are going to perform in this particular match. Let's break it down.
OG's map choice is largely going to depend on which map Sprout bans, with Inferno, Mirage and Overpass all being viable options for them. However, Sprout's map choice is a bit easier to forecast. They have picked Train in the last two series against OG, and when you break down the map pools of these two teams, it is easy to see why. OG bans Vertigo at a very high frequency (93%), and they simply cannot afford to float it against a team like Sprout who play it often. With Vertigo out of the picture, Train, which has been OG's worst map in terms of overall win rate, makes for the best pick for Sprout. This is important to note since it allows us to take a look at how the players have performed on this particular map.
With Train being a bit of an AWPers playground, it is perhaps unsurprising to see the Polish Britton mantuu at the top of the list for OG. This is actually one of his better maps in the pool, and the proof is in the pudding. He has posted 0.74 kills/round on Train since the team was formed, significantly better than both valde (0.67) and ISSAA (0.64). Speaking of ISSAA, the Jordanian has been on fire throughout DreamHack Open, and he currently leads his team with a rating of 1.19 and 0.73 kills/round at the event. However, he had a terrible showing in their most recent match against NiP, managing only 6 frags in 26 rounds on Train and just 18 across the entire series. As such, I think mantuu or valde make for better picks in this particular matchup.
On the side of Sprout, both dycha and faveN stand out. dycha is an excellent Train player and is in great form at the moment. Surprisingly, snatchie doesn't have as much impact as you would expect of a main AWPer on Train, which is why I like faveN a bit more. faveN has great upside if this goes to a decider, which has been a common occurrence in past matches between these two teams. Nuke has been the decider map in all of their previous matches against OG and faveN leads the way with 0.81 kills/round on this map. He is also an excellent Mirage player which gives him additional upside.