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Pre-Fire Predictions - 4 December 2020
k0nfig has been an absolute machine recently, and he will have to be instrumental once more when Complexity take on FURIA in the quarter-final of DreamHack Masters Winter.
Valle | Dec 04, 2020 | Pre-Fire Predictions
FURIA -vs- Complexity
The Brazilians of FURIA are set to face off against Complexity in the quarter-final of DreamHack Masters Winter. These two teams actually played each other at the start of the year in another DreamHack event, namely DreamHack Open Anaheim. That time, it was FURIA who came out on top, beating Complexity by a score of 2-1 with wins on Mirage and Nuke. yuurih topped the board on the day with his 70 frags, and I like him a decent amount again in this matchup -- especially if FURIA were to pick Overpass like they did last time.
On the Complexity side of things, there is a name that stands out and that is k0nfig. The Dane has actually outperformed blameF since jks joined the roster with 0.82 kills/round, and on Overpass and Mirage it is not even close. k0nfig has posted 0.87 kills/round on Mirage and 0.90 kills/round on Overpass, making him an excellent pick if we see a similar veto. However, that is of course far from guaranteed as we have seen both of these teams mix it up quite a bit in the veto. With this in mind, it may be worth considering blameF who is a consistent force on Complexity and a great option in the place market.
OG -vs- BIG
These two teams have faced off against each other quite a bit, so there is a lot of data to break down for this one.
This year, OG and BIG have played each other five times, with BIG getting the W on three occasions. Interestingly, Inferno and Dust2 have been the maps in each and every one of these series, with Mirage or Nuke as a decider.
Inferno and Dust2 are two excellent maps for XANTARES, proven by the numbers as he leads his team with 0.73 and 0.74 kills/round in online matches this year. syrsoN has tremendous upside if we see Mirage as a decider, but considering that Nuke has been the decider in the last two series between OG and BIG, I like XANTARES more. Especially when you add in the fact that the Turk has top fragged in two out of the last three games against OG.
On the OG side of things, there are a few names that tower above the rest. Both mantuu and valde excel on the maps that we are likely to see in this matchup, but valde has been in the best form over the last three months which is why I would edge it in favour of the Dane for this one.
NBK- has also been playing incredibly well recently, which is noteworthy because he is otherwise one of the bottom fraggers on this roster. He has actually posted the highest kills/round on Inferno over the past three months with 0.74 kills/round, and his long-term totals are not too shabby either. It is also worth mentioning that he has been just one or two frags shy from top fragging in the last two games against BIG.
I would be shocked if a lot of money would come in on NBK- in this match, so I actually think it makes some sense to bet on him here as a massive outsider due to the potential return on investment. He will likely give you a good return even in the place market if he goes off.
fnatic -vs- Virtus.pro
Virtus.pro are one of the hottest teams in the game right now, having beaten defending champions MAD Lions in the opening round before dispatching of tournament favourites BIG in the upper semi-finals. But, they now face their perhaps biggest test yet in the form of fnatic. This is because the Swedes match up favourably against them in the veto process. The fact that Virtus.pro perma-bans Nuke is a godsend for fnatic, who are used to having to fight a bit of an uphill battle due to their weakness on Nuke and Dust2, in particular. With how likely it is that Virtus.pro bans Nuke in this series, fnatic can comfortably ban Dust2 and force Virtus.pro into a scenario where they will likely have to pick either Vertigo or Mirage, giving fnatic a far better chance of success. While I am a big fan of what this Virtus.pro team is doing right now, I favour fnatic players in this match for this reason. Especially when you consider the fact that more money is likely going to come in on Virtus.pro players due to the Puntt AI ranking them to do well in the outright winner market.
The number one candidate that stands out is Brollan, who has been the player on fnatic with the highest upside throughout this online era that we now find ourselves in. Maps like Train, Overpass, Mirage, Vertigo, and to a lesser extent Inferno, are all maps that we could see in this series, and Brollan has the highest average kills/round on fnatic on all but one of these maps.
A strong argument can also be made for KRIMZ, who has particularly high upside on maps like Mirage and Train. This, combined with his consistency, makes him a pretty solid bet in the place market.
While I do favour fnatic in this series, it does not mean that Virtus.pro players cannot perform well. YEKINDAR is incredibly good on both Mirage and Vertigo, both of which are probable map picks for Virtus.pro. However, he isn't as impactful on Train, Overpass and Inferno, which is why I would rather put my money on Brollan. I could also see Jame having a lot of impact, especially if fnatic were to pick Train where he can really get to most out of his AWPing prowess, but it is not enough for me to justify a bet on him in this one.