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Pre-Fire Predictions - 27 November 2020

MIBR are set to take on Liquid in the quarter-final of BLAST Showdown.

Valle | Nov 27, 2020 | Pre-Fire Predictions

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Liquid -vs- MIBR

Top Pick: EliGE (Liquid)

Outsider Pick: NAF (Liquid) / trk (MIBR)

MIBR are coming off a big win against FaZe, and are now set to face off against Team Liquid in the quarter-final of BLAST Showdown. MIBR and Liquid are two names that we commonly see play each other in the North American region, but this will be the first time that the two play each other after MIBR completely revamped their roster. Both of these teams managed to pull off miraculous comebacks in their opening matches, so you would expect them to come into this one fired up and ready to go. 

Nuke has been the most common map choice for MIBR during their short life as a team and considering that this is Liquid's worst map in terms of overall win rate, it seems likely that they pick it again. This is an excellent map for NAF, who leads his team with 0.78 kills/round since Grim joined the team back in August, only Trailing EliGE who is always a solid pick to top the board for Liquid. 

Liquid's map choice in this series is harder to predict. Overpass and Inferno are two good options for them. Normally, I would expect Liquid to pick Overpass in this series most of the time, but the fact that they dropped the ball on Overpass in their most recent match against MAD Lions may hurt their confidence somewhat. If Liquid were to pick a map like Inferno instead, it would definitely favour NAF who sometimes struggles to put up numbers on Overpass. 

On the side of MIBR, both trk and kNgV- stand out as good plays. kNgV- may be the more solid play overall, and he has a better chance to put up numbers on either of Liquid's map picks, but trk stands out as a nice longshot considering how incredible he has been on Nuke so far for MIBR. I would also expect him to be a less popular pick, which could return a bigger profit in case he were to top the board.

Complexity -vs- Cloud9

Top Pick: blameF (Complexity)

Outsider Pick: k0nfig (Complexity)

Complexity will be big favourites in this matchup with Cloud9, who managed to get their first win of the board with their new lineup earlier in the week against NiP. The sample size of data available on Cloud9 is quite limited, and when you consider that Complexity are quite flexible in the way they approach map vetoes, I think it makes little sense to break down map specific data for this particular matchup. 

Complexity have changed quite a bit since jks joined the team. While the Aussie' has taken a lot of oBo's old positions on CT side, the team performs differently. poizon appears to have taken a bit of a statistical hit, and it remains to be seen if he will return to form. He had a good game in their most recent win against Sprout, but it is not enough for me to really consider him quite yet. Instead, I would consider the Danish duo of blameF and k0nfig, who were the two big hitters on the old lineup and have remained so since jks joined the team. k0nfig has actually outperformed blameF so far when it comes to pure fragging, edging him out with 0.81 kills/round in all matches so far, making him a nice option. However, blameF is definitely the most consistent player on the team and his lurking ability always sets him up for a great number of kills, even in matches where Complexity struggle.

On Cloud9, it is floppy who stands out the most. The American had an excellent performance in their first win, and he will likely have to show up again if Cloud9 want to compete against a very good Complexity team. However, considering how big of a favourite Complexity are in this one, the duo of blameF and k0nfig make the most sense.

Espada -vs- NaVi Junior

Top Pick: degster (Espada)

Outsider Pick: Dima (Espada)

Espada are coming in as the favourite against NaVi Junior in this quarter-final matchup in the CyberBet Golden League. The two have faced off six times this year and Espada have been victorious on all but one occasion. Espada have also been on a good run of form recently, winning eight out of their last ten games, with Gambit being the only team that has been able to take them down. 

degster's AWPing has been the focal point of their success so far, and he is going to be a big favourite to top the board for Espada. The Russian has posted an impressive 0.85 kills/round over the past three months, far better than anyone else on his team. Inferno, Overpass, Dust2 and Train have been the most common maps in past series between these two teams, and degster tops the board for Espada in terms of fragging on all of these maps this year. 

In terms of outsiders, there are a few names that stand out. Dima has the potential to do well in this series, particularly if we end up on maps like Dust2 and Train where he tends to put up big numbers. Patsi is another player worth considering. His best map in the pool is Overpass, and it is quite likely that we see this map played considering that Espada have picked it in the last three series against NaVi Junior.

It is also worth noting that NaVi Junior's child prodigy m0nesy looks set to start this game. The 15-year old is one of the most mechanically gifted players in the region, capable with both the rifle and the AWP, which has drawn comparisons to s1mple in NaVi's senior team. So far he has played all of NaVi Junior's matches in the Golden League, posting 0.74 kills/round, second only to B1T. Considering how likely it is that Espada win this series, taking a NaVi Junior player isn't particularly appealing. However, if they were to upset, m0nesy will have a good chance of topping the board for his team making him a viable longshot.

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