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Pre-Fire Predictions 30 October 2020
NiKo is set to make his highly anticipated debut for G2 against FURIA.
Valle | Oct 30, 2020 | Pre-Fire Predictions
Complexity -vs- FaZe
These two teams have undergone changes recently, with jks coming in to replace oBo on Complexity, and olofmeister standing in for NiKo on FaZe. FaZe are in a rough spot at the moment after NiKo's departure, and it doesn't help that olofmeister has been inactive for months. The person who will benefit the most from the changes on FaZe is probably Kjaerbye, who appears to have been given some of NiKo's CT side spots on maps like Mirage, a map that could very well come into play in this match. However, my money is on Complexity to take this series as the map veto sets up quite nicely for them. FaZe have opted for Mirage and Dust2 in past matches against Complexity, both of which Complexity will be more than happy to play.
Both NiKo and oBo have excelled in past matches between these two teams, but neither will be on the server for tonight's game. Someone who will be is k0nfig of Complexity, who was the runner-up in terms of total frags when Complexity and FaZe squared off in ESL Pro League and BLAST Premier Fall earlier in the year. If FaZe goes for Dust2 over a map like Mirage, k0nfig will have great upside since this is one of his better maps in the pool, posting 0.76 kills/round in online matches this year. He also topped the scoreboard for Complexity on Dust2 in yesterday's match with Vitality, posting 29 frags in a 16-12 win.
The other Dane on this roster, blameF, had an excellent showing in their loss to Vitality, leading the server with 73 frags. He is undoubtedly the main man on this Complexity team and he often sets himself up for success by baiting his teammates effectively. The prospect of FaZe picking Dust2 worries me somewhat since blameF plays very passively on this map and isn't as involved in the action as on the other maps in the pool. However, if Mirage comes into play it changes things drastically. Except for Train, there is no other map where blameF delivers a higher average kills/round (0.79).
G2 -vs- FURIA
This will be G2's first match with NiKo, who joined the team only a few days ago. So far, a lot of the early money is coming in on NiKo. Understandable when you consider NiKo's quality and his hunger to perform on his debut. However, there are a few possible landmines to consider. There is a chance that we see Vertigo in this series, a map that NiKo barely played on FaZe as this was their perma-ban. This isn't an easy opponent for them either, as FURIA have been on fire in North America. On the side of G2, I would actually consider the other Kovač, namely huNter-, who has posted 0.75 and 0.76 kills/round on Vertigo and Mirage respectively, both of which could come into play in this matchup.
When FURIA are playing and Vertigo is a possibility, yuurih is someone who should be considered, as well. Over the course of 2020, he has posted 0.79 kills/round on this map, far better than KSCERATO and HEN1 (0.74 and 0.68 respectively). There is, of course, a chance that G2 decides against picking Vertigo due to NiKo's inexperience on this map. However, FURIA still might pick Vertigo themselves, and even if they don't, both yuurih and huNter- still have enough upside to warrant picking them, in my opinion.
Astralis -vs- MIBR
Astralis are coming in as a massive favourite in this matchup with MIBR. This will be MIBR's first match with their new roster after having let go of the trio of FalleN, fer and TACO. While there is still some quality on this team with players like kNgV- and v$m, it is hard to see anything but a comfortable win for Astralis in this spot.
With this being a brand new roster for MIBR, it is hard to predict how the map veto is going to play out, but Dust2 seems like a real possibility. Any time Dust2 comes into play, dupreeh should be considered on Astralis, as this is one of his best maps in the pool. Picking aggressive players like dupreeh is generally not a bad idea against weaker opposition, as they tend to put up numbers in case of a stomp. device and Magisk also have potential to put up some crazy numbers in this matchup against MIBR, with device being the favourite due to current form. He looked good in their most recent loss to Heroic at DreamHack Open Fall, topping the board with 71 frags over three maps.
It is also worth mentioning that Xyp9x is back on Astralis after taking an extended break from the game due to burnout, something which has become a common occurrence in CS:GO lately due to the busy schedule. While I do think that Xyp9x is underrated in many aspects, this is the type of matchup where more aggressive players on Astralis might get a bigger piece of the cake.